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Can Biden Win in 2024? How Can He Lose?



              So, we now have 8 months minus a couple of days until we elect a President to lead the country for another four years, and unless something really crazy happens, Joe has the whole thing already wrapped up and put to bed.

              Yea, yea, I know all those polls which show him losing to Trump, but I’ll take the short odds on a couple of Jacksons right now that the polls will shortly begin to change and will have Joe with the same 6 or 7-point lead that he had in the polls the last time around.

              I’m also willing to take a bet right now on the number of electoral votes that Joe will receive, no matter how many fake electors Trump will try to send to D.C. when the Electoral College meets on January 6, 2025.

              And don’t worry about whether Rudy Giuliani will announce another effort to ‘stop the steal’ later this year. Because if a hearing scheduled for next month in bankruptcy court results in Rudy’s creditors being able to examine all the documentation covering his financial situation, and if that examination turns up financial resources that Rudy somehow didn’t remember to list in the bankruptcy petition that he filed last year, the former Chief of the Southern District may be lucky if he’ll be able to come up with the money to buy a squeegee to wipe off the windshields of cars going across 72nd Street to the East River Drive.

              And for all we’ll know, maybe while Rudy’s wiping off windshields, Trump will be standing there trying to sell his MAGA hats for a buck apiece. Because if the November election turns out the way I think it’s going to turn out, Trump can start discounting all that MAGA crap because he’ll become just another former President who nobody pays attention to at all.

              You can lose one election – fine. But when you lose two in a row, nobody’s going to take you seriously in the public space, particularly when your complaining about the election getting stolen finally runs out of steam.

              So, as my old friend Howard Cosell (remember him?) used to say, let’s look at the numbers, okay?

              If we go back over the last five Presidential elections to 2004, there are 17 states which have always voted for the Democrat(ic) candidate and delivered 200 electoral votes. Over those same five elections, there are 20 ruby-red states which count 153 Republic(an) electoral votes.

              Which means that as of this morning the blue team has eight months to find 70 electoral votes, the reds have to come up with 117 real, not fake electoral votes.

              Or to put it another way, our side has to find 36% of the electoral votes from states that don’t always vote blue, but the other side has to find 64% of the electoral votes from states that don’t always vote red.

              Before we try to predict which states can give their electoral votes to our side this year, there’s something else you need to know about those so-called ‘battleground’ states. Five of those states – CO, MI, NM, PA, WI – only swung from blue to red in one of the five elections held since 2004, and three of them – MI, PA, WI – only swung from blue to red in 2016, when she whose name I won’t mention didn’t show up to campaign in those states at all.

              There’s a reason why Joe made his first campaign stop in the Keystone State after mentioning he whose name I also won’t mention was referred to as ‘my predecessor’ at least a dozen times during Joe’s State of the Union speech.

              And the GOP claimed that Joe’s speech was ‘too partisan?’ Give me a friggin’ break, okay?

              So now, after 625 words from me this morning, I’ll get to the point. Come November, all our side needs to do to keep those five battleground states in the blue column is to remind women who sometimes vote GOP that one of the most important freedoms they deserve is the freedom to choose.

              Then find or steal 10 more electoral votes in some other swing state, and as Grandpa would say, ‘ze hais’ (read: det’s det.)

              And if you take a look at the 2020 exit polls, you’ll quickly learn that women not only voted more frequently for Joe than for him, but Joe’s voters also supported abortion over his voters by a margin of three to one.

              If Joe continues to talk about bringing back Roe v. Wade they way he talked about it Thursday night, I simply don’t see how that guy with his MAGA bunch can compete in the all-important swing states.

              I simply don’t. And I don’t care how hard the Fake News tries to make 2024 into a competitive race.

             

             

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