Although I really don’t like him and have never liked him, this doesn’t mean that I’m willing to join the very recent lineup of political know-it-alls who believe for purposes of 2024, that Donald Duck is a dead duck.
Yea, yea, I know all about the legal problems he has, the dip in fundraising revenues, the sooner or later collapse of his social media company, and all the other myriad and endless problems which make him appear too vulnerable to be taken seriously for the 2024 campaign.
Guess what? He’s still far and away the most viable candidate out there to be at the top of the red ticket next year, and my judgement is not based on the fact that he’s the only declared candidate to date. It’s based on two factors which somehow keep being avoided by the so-called experts who handicap political campaigns.
First and most important is the fact that he’s done it before – not once but twice. And the names which keep getting thrown around as the competition – DeSantis, Pompeo, Hogan, Cruz, Haley – include only one of the bunch (Cruz) who has any national campaign experience at all. So, we don’t know whether any of the other GOP wannabes can even put together a campaign team which will get them to first base.
Remember what happened to the McCain campaign in 2008? McCain was so far off the original fundraising projections that in July he had to shit-can the entire senior staff. Between that situation and the dopiness of his running mate, McCain basically never left the starting gate.
Second and almost as important is the fact that Trump may want to be President again but he’s not desperate for the job. And his lack of concern for whether he wins or loses will, if nothing else, give him all kinds of flexibility when it comes to choosing a running mate.
Finally, and maybe most important, I believe that if Trump was going to be indicted for some crime, his perp march would have already taken place. And the fact that he keeps getting headlines about the legal actions involving Stormy Daniels and the New York AG just keeps his name popping up on news programs, which is still the cheapest advertising there can be.
If Trump can keep his campaign together through the early primaries, I guarantee you’ll see all these GOPers who claim to be looking for a ‘fresh face’ reconciling themselves to moving behind the same, old face for another four years.
No matter who ends up on the top of both tickets, as near as we can tell, 93% of the electorate identify as blue (49%) or red (44%) with a whole, big 7% not knowing which way they lean. So, the results on Wednesday, November 6, 2024, will depend on turnout, in particular the turnout in 7 or 8 ‘swing’ states.
Frankly, Trump would be crazy not to run again. After all, everyone knows what he stands for, so to speak, so it’s not as if he has to spend a dime on getting anyone to know his name, or his face, or anything about him at all.
I keep thinking about the David Sedaris story in which he compares undecided voters to an inflight dinner consisting of warm dogshit sprinkled with chunks of cut glass. But what about all the decided voters out there who will gladly wolf down dogshit glacé and vote for Trump?
I don’t remember who warned us not to underestimate the stupidity of the average American voter. And that’s enough of a reason to believe that No. 45 could become No. 47 in 2024.