top of page
Search

How Can Trump Lose? He Can't.


Over the last several decades, as the internet has become a major factor in economic growth, economists spend lots of time talking about something called ‘destructive innovation,’ which is what happens when a new type of economic activity disrupts and eventually destroys or totally transforms an existing market.

But I happen to believe that the destructive innovation practiced by Donald Trump in the political market is much more powerful and different than anything which happens in economic terms. Not only has Trump done political things in ways that have never been done before, but his destructive approach to how he has dealt with losing the 2020 election, if anything, is even more innovative than what he has done up until now.

Think of some of the guys who lost Presidential elections and how they behaved after the votes came in. Walter Mondale joined a New York law firm and was never heard from again. George H. W. Bush got his name mentioned a few times after his losing 1992 campaign, but that was usually something having to do with his son running and winning the 2000 campaign.

Even the guys who win two national elections are usually quiet except for a peep here and there. Barack gets an interview from time to time on CNN, but the Q&A lasts for five minutes or less. The last time that George Bush made a speech was at a commencement of Southern Methodist University because his wife is on the university board.

Trump, on the other hand, not only works overtime at getting attention paid to him by starting his re-election campaign long before the primary season has begun, but if anything, appears to relish being indicted for criminal charges as a way of keeping his name in the lead-off spot on the media news.

Let’s say, for the sake of my argument, that after all the wringing and wrangling between the lawyers, that Trump’s federal trial in Florida for stashing classified documents next to the toilet bowl in Mar-a-Lago kicks off sometime around the end of the year.

And let’s say, again for the sake of my argument, that Trump is found guilty, but his sentencing is put off because: a) he’s not going anywhere, and b) he immediately begins an appeal.

So now we’re into February or March and Trump is beginning to blaze his way through the primaries the same way he blazed through the primaries in 2016.

Think it’s all that easy to get Trump’s name removed from the primary ballots in all those upcoming primary states? Think it’s all that easy to get Trump’s name taken off the November general election ballot if he gets a majority of the primary votes needed to become the GOP nominee again?

Let’s not forget there are 50 states, and each state has its own laws and procedures covering everything having anything to do with how residents of that state vote and how those votes are counted and used to determine who will wind up as the GOP’s Presidential nominee.

Don’t believe me? Take a look at this compendium covering state laws and party rules for replacing a Presidential nominee. This website was put together by Ballotpedia, and by the time I was halfway through what appears to be a pretty comprehensive analysis of this issue by an outfit which knows what it’s talking about when it comes to elections, I realized that among all the GOP 2024 heavies and lightweights, nobody is anywhere near Trump when it comes to having skin in the game.

Fine. So, you call a press conference, you set up a website and you register with the Federal Elections Commission and now you’re a candidate for President in 2024. Big deal. Big friggin’ deal.

What’s going to get you even remotely close to having any kind of shot in the primary and national elections is whether you have a group of people working for you in every, individual state.

Take a look at the latest polls for the 2024 GOP nomination – it’s a joke. Trump and DeSantis are splitting 75 percent of the responses and eight others are splitting the other 25 percent! Three of these so-called ‘candidates’ don’t even have one percent.

And by the way, back in March,, Trump was at 44% and DeSantis was at 31%. Last week, Trump was at 53% and DeSanctimonious had slipped to 22%.

Back in December 2015, the very first GOP poll for Iowa had Trump at 35%, Cruz at 18% and Rubio at 13%. Cruz ended up winning Iowa by a whole, big three points over Trump, but let’s not forget that Iowa in 2016 was the very first time that Trump ever presented himself as a political candidate anywhere.

What did Trump do after Iowa? He hired a professional campaign manager for New Hampshire (Lewandowski), built a statewide organization and won the New Hampshire going away.

Trump is no longer employing Lewandowski, but I’ll guarantee you that his New Hampshire organization is alive and well. How do I know this? Because my wife and I like to take a drive through New Hampshire on weekends and the ‘Trump – 2024’ yard signs and banners are being displayed in every village and town.

I don’t think that Trump cares whether or not he can win the general election in 2024. For that matter, I don’t think he was all that concerned with winning or losing back in 2016. What he began doing in 2015 was to build a brand in a new market, and in the process, he developed an approach to politics which was more destructively innovative than anything that anyone else has ever done.

Want to bet me a Jackson that Trump’s already thinking about 2028? Thank you - I’ll take the short odds.

22 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Comments


bottom of page