Want to get involved with the biggest, bullsh*t piece of political nonsense since Lyndon Johnson invented the North Vietnamese attack on the destroyer USS Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin on August 2, 1964?
I’m talking about how Donald Trump keeps saying that he’s going to run for President again in 2024. And he’s so hot to trot with this crapola that he’s now beginning to attack not just any Democrat that he would be up against, but he’s going after potential Republican rivals as well.
Asked yesterday about what would happen if he went face-to-face with DeSantis in 2024, here’s what Trump had to say: “If I faced him, I'd beat him like I would beat everyone else.” Trump then went on to say that he was very popular with conservatives, and that there wasn’t a single competitor in the GOP who could overcome the strength of his base.
Now understand that when Trump is interviewed, the script is written in advance. I don’t remember the last time he was actually asked a real question in a face-to-face with anyone from the media, and by ‘real question’ I mean pointing out that what he says is a lie, or just wrong, or both.
In fact, recent polls show Trump unable to get his popularity level above 40 percent. A majority of GOP-registered voters have also indicated that they don’t want him to run. Trump’s problem is very simple, namely, that he would be the first candidate to run for President three, separate times. And the last time he ran, Joe beat him by more than 7 million votes.
With the exception of 2008, when the GOP brand was badly tarnished by the Recession, the last time that any Presidential candidate of either party beat the opposition by more than 7 million votes was when Reagan beat Mondale in 1984. In other words, for all the talk about how the 2020 election was a ‘fraud,’ the truth is that Trump has never been a strong Presidential candidate, even when he won.
Trump won the 2016 election because he flipped three blue states (MI, PA, WI) by the grand total of 1/10th of one percent of the total votes in those states. How often did Hillary even show up in those three states after Labor Day? Exactly once. Not once in each state. Once in all three states.
By the way, Trump also was a loser in the 2018 mid-term election, and he lost in a big way. He did more than 60 rallies for the mid-terms and stated again and again that the election was a ‘plebiscite’ about him. The GOP held onto the Senate largely because of how the one-third seats in play favored them. But the House not only went big-time blue, but the result basically put an end to Trump’s 2020 campaign.
The one thing that Trump still seems to have going for him is the support from Evangelicals, who continue to back up that MAGA crap by a margin of four or five to one. The only problem is that even if Trump captures just about every Evangelical voter who comes to the polls, most of the Evangelical population happens to live in states which don’t count that many Electoral College votes.
The highest percentage of Evangelicals are found in six states – TN, AL, KY, OK, AR, MS – which together don’t even count for as many Electoral College votes as are counted in California or a combination of Illinois and New York.
There’s a new poll out of the University of Virginia which at first glance appears to give Trump’s 2024 candidacy a real boost, but if you look at the results a little more closely, things don’t turn out to be the way they first appear.
According to this poll, nearly half the respondents who voted for Trump last year said they would be willing to leave the GOP if Trump ran in 2024 on his own, third-party line. At first glance, this poll appears to support the idea that Trump still has an overwhelming margin among his so-called ‘base.’
But to quote Bill Clinton, do the math. And if you do the math, the numbers from this poll clearly indicate that by running a campaign separate from the GOP, what will happen is that both Trump and the GOP would lose.
I have stated more times than I can remember that I would like to see the GOP become the permanent minority party, and I can’t think of any outcome down the road that would be more satisfying than having Trump’s new party and the GOP fight for second place again and again and again.
On the other hand, I would have no problem with the GOP winning an occasional election here and there, assuming that the party finally decides to dump Trump and rejoin the 21st Century in word and deed.
I really can’t believe that almost 50 years after Roe v. Wade, that women may lose the right to decide how their bodies can be used or that any public official would dare stand up and say that wearing a mask to prevent the spread of a deadly virus is some kind of infringement on Constitutional ‘rights.’
All of that being said, I am still hoping that Trump will run again in 2024. To quote Grandpa, Trump’s real drek (read: garbage). He needs to be stuffed in a can somewhere and thrown out.