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Who Won on Tuesday? Trump or Joe?



              I have to give the Fake News credit. They spent the last few months pretending that the Super Tuesday vote would be a threat to the nominations of either Trump or Biden or both. And now that the primaries for both parties completely undercut that narrative, they ended up last night by saying something about how the general election in November could go either way.

              Trump won all those Republic(an) primaries because Haley was about as strong an alternative as the Man in the Moon. She couldn’t come up with any kind of narrative except something vague about how the GOP needed a ‘fresh start,’ whatever that meant, which meant nothing.

              As for Joe, the so-called ‘uncommitted’ vote means nothing because come November, it’s not as if any of those voters will demonstrate their lack of commitment to Joe by voting for Trump.

              Remember what happened in 2012? The Fake News kept trying to pour cold water on the Bomber’s re-election campaign by saying that he only won in 2008 because the economy was a mess. But now that Wall Street had straightened itself out, a lot of those Democrat(ic) voters might stay home.

              In fact, Obama received 3 million less votes in 2012 than he grabbed in 2008. But those voters didn’t show up and vote GOP. Which is exactly what will happen again.

              In 2016, Trump rolled up 63 million votes. He jumped to 74 million and change in 2020. Meanwhile, Joe increased the Democrat(ic) vote by almost 25%!

              Yea, yea, I know that Joe’s victory margin in 3 swing states – GA, AZ, WI – was less than 1% in each state. Guess what? If Trump had stolen enough votes to win all three states, Joe still would have won the whole thing.

              Now granted, every election is different and 2024 certainly isn’t 2020 when just about everyone knew someone who had either died or been treated for the Chinese ‘flu.’ And I love how the Fake News is now obsessed by the so-called ‘rural rage,’ which could make the difference for Trump in some key battleground states.

              Meanwhile, back in April, 2020 when Joe and Trump first started their head-to-head campaign, FiveThirtyEight published a detailed analysis of how the rural vote might influence the final result, and basically it turned out that states with a larger percentage of rural residents also had a smaller number of electoral votes. In fact, if a Presidential election turned only on the urban-rural voting divide, the result would be an overwhelming victory for the blue team.

              On the other hand, with a few exceptions (1932, 1980) the outcome of a national election doesn’t just depend on a single issue. There’s always a ying and a yang when it comes to how voters decide to vote or whether they even show up to vote.

              In 2020, from the very first to the very last poll, Joe maintained a 7-point lead over Trump. In fact, there had never been a previous Presidential election in which the polls were so static and resistant to any change.

              This time around, the polls are more or less even, and I suspect they will stay that way throughout the campaign. So once again, those of us on the blue side of things will have to figure out a way to swipe some votes in five or six swing states. Which brings me to the whole point of this column, okay?

              How come the Fake News keeps giving Trump free advertising by repeating his endless claims about election ‘fraud,’ and yet we never hear anything about whether it was Trump, not Joe, who was out there stealing votes?

              Here’s a guy, I’m talking about Trump, who is now in hock for almost half a billion dollars because he ran a business enterprise which was nothing but a scam.

              For that matter, how much did he scam in that phony Trump University deal? How much of the millions that Stevev Bannon scammed for that phony Mexican wall ended up in Trump’s pocket before Bannon got a get-out-of-jail-free-card from Trump?

              One of these days, maybe someone in the Fake News will actually try to do what journalists are supposed to do, which is get underneath the bullshit and dig up the real news.

              I’m not holding my breath, because if I did, my face would turn blue.

             

             

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