So, the Quinnipiac poll comes out and Joe continues to hold a slim lead over Trump. Which is all fine and well except for one, little thing. And it’s the same little thing which has become the litmus test for all Presidential campaigns since 1984, namely, that there are 50 states plus D.C. which together count the Electoral College votes, but it’s the votes in less than 10 states which determines who wins the whole damn thing.
I’m not going to bother listing all those so-called ‘battleground’ states because if you don’t know the names of those states by now, you haven’t been paying attention to the Fake News media and you probably don’t care.
But if you ticked off Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Georgia, you’re halfway there. In fact, if either Trump or Joe wins every state which always votes either red or blue and add in those five states – game over, that’s that.
Leave it to the Fake News, of course, to already be starting up the noise about the outcome of a national election taking place in ten months’ time which will result in a tremendous victory for Trump. According to this morning’s Newsweek, Trump will not only pick up all the usual red states, but he’s way ahead of Joe in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, three states that swung blue in 2020 but are now back in the red.
Of course, it will remain to be seen whether 10% of voters in those states who haven’t made up their minds will vote for Trump if he’s going to need the General Services Administration to move the Resolute desk to his cell at Butner or Otisville.
I am convinced, by the way, that Nikki Haley is staying in the race because she figures that no matter how far Trump is ahead of her right now, his lead will evaporate if he has to stand up, face a jury and hear the word ‘guilty’ anytime over the next nine months.
I’m also convinced that much of Joe’s lousy poll numbers are due to the fact that he’s hardly done any campaigning at all, plus he simply doesn’t generate the media attention that Trump receives, particularly when Trump’s entire campaign strategy appears to be saying something even more racist and more extreme every time he opens his mouth.
The one demographic in the Quinnipiac poll which still seems to be solidly in Trump’s corner is his support from white males, a category particularly important in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. But support is one thing, turnout is another. What swung those states to blue in 2020 was turnout in those states, particularly from demographic groups which stayed home in 2016.
The problem with all the pre-election polls, of course, is that none of them can predict the impact of the wild card in this year’s campaign, the wild card of course being whether Trump will find himself having to explain away some of those 91 felony charges which will become jury findings before November 5th.
I’m not at all impressed by the fact that voters who are already in Trump’s corner tell the pollsters they don’t care whether he’s guilty or not. He’s their man no matter what any judge or jury says.
And by the way, it’s not as if the government or the Executive branch would run any differently if the country’s Chief Executive spent his second term behind bars. It’s not as if Trump did anything which remotely could be defined as management activities the last time around.
In fact, I’m still convinced that Trump has a whole batch of videos just waiting to be edited so they can play on Netflix and HBO as a docudrama called ‘MAGA in the White House’ or something like that. Because let’s not forget that Trump owns the MAGA brand, the same way he still owns those hi-rise condos in New York City which no longer display his name.
Do I want Joe to be re-elected later this year? I’m a Democrat and I always vote the blue team.
Would I be really upset if Trump flips those battleground states and takes the oath again? A toothache would bother me a lot more.